Commercial real estate: Is it time to invest in the next cycle?
Why it’s coming back, and where growth is most likely
The commercial real estate market appears to be shaking off its extended malaise. “Commercial real estate (CRE) is cyclical, and there was a pretty strong correction starting in 2022. But that correction has run its course, and assets have largely re-priced for the next cycle,” says David Koletic, managing director of investments, specialty asset management (SAM) at Bank of America Private Bank. “Values are lower, fundamentals are improving and CRE capital markets are opening,” he believes.
At the same time, the higher interest rate environment has contributed to higher cap rates and construction costs, muting the forward supply pipeline. This in turn has exposed a potentially favorable entry point for long-term investors, notes Koletic, who focuses on real estate investments for Bank of America’s wealth management clients.
Since late 2025, “the car has been turning the corner, even though the turn is a little wider and slower than anyone anticipated in January,” Koletic says – primarily because of the uncertainty surrounding interest rates and the impact that has had on transaction activity during April and May.
Why are conditions more favorable now? A few of the reasons:
- Capital markets are becoming more active. With equity capital available and debt markets open, transaction activity in commercial real estate is getting traction, albeit in a choppy manner during Q2, given the rise in 10-year US Treasury yields.
- Property market fundamentals are improving. “The supply/demand balance is in good shape, and improving,” Koletic notes. Across most property types, vacancies appear to have peaked or are close to peaking, while tenant demand is healthy.
- Limited new supply is supporting existing assets. With higher borrowing and construction costs discouraging new development, existing properties have a unique window in which they are facing less competition.
- Commercial real estate is gradually normalizing. While sensitive to rate volatility and capital market conditions, the recovery in commercial real estate is beginning to take hold.
While deflating office values has gotten most of the headlines over the past few years, this slice of the investable commercial real estate market accounts for only about 12% of the whole.1 Offices are is stabilizing, but progress will be slow as companies recalibrate space needs and reduce their footprints.
Of the remaining main subsectors, some are better positioned than others. Koletic believes secular tailwinds on the demand side favor warehouses. The supply picture favors necessity and strip retail, especially grocery-anchored, which can provide an attractive combination of current income with growth and pricing power for investors. He also sees multi-family housing -- including senior housing – offering promising investment opportunities, especially in certain growth markets where new supply has already peaked.
Koletic emphasizes that this is not a “buy everything and hold market,” making careful underwriting and asset selection as important as ever.
For more insights into commercial real estate going forward, read the SAM Insight Series, “Anticipating Opportunities in Real Assets,” by Bank of America’s SAM investment team.
1 The Real Estate Roundtable 2025